Many times in life, something strange happens, and we pause and exclaim “what were the odds of that?”. But we don’t actually stop and calculate those odds (OK, sometimes I do, just for grins) and we never give voice to the more important question: “What does it all mean?” Read on…
Story Number One
Once upon a time, I took a girlfriend to Gruene Hall, the oldest dance hall in Texas. This is not a nightclub so much as it is a nice place to go and chill out, especially on a Saturday afternoon. Picture wooden floors, long wooden picnic tables and benches, and a general friendly, laid-back attitude. My girlfriend and I took some playing cards with us, because we were very much into playing Cribbage at the time.
Halfway through our Cribbage game, my girlfriend was shuffling the cards, and something amazing happened. For whatever reason, one card escaped her control during a shuffle, flew across the picnic table to where I was sitting, and almost hit me in the face. Sitting as I was, elbows on table with head in hands, I was able to quickly move my right hand forward just a bit and snag the lower right corner of the card between my thumb and forefinger just in front of my nose. Card aligned perfectly with the vertical, it was all so smooth and graceful, you would have sworn it was a practiced stunt. But it wasn’t. How often does one card “fly” from a deck, head specifically toward one individual, and get snagged so gracefully? And get this… the card was the “Queen of Hearts”, the mythical card of love, romance, and relationships. This was clearly a sign of things to come, for that girlfriend eventually became my wife. Now there’s significance for you. True story.
Story Number Two
Once upon a time, in high school, I was tossing a football around in the front yard with one of my best friends. On one throw, I significantly overthrew him, and he had to chase the ball down in a neighbor’s yard. For whatever reason, my friend decided to punt the ball back instead of throwing it. It was going over my head, but it was very high with plenty of hang time. I backpedaled slowly, keeping my eye on the trajectory. Two steps. Five steps. The ball was on its way down, and I was moving across the driveway backwards. Eight steps, and I was under the basketball goal now, with no more room to back up and unsure about how the ball would carom off of the backboard or pole. But it didn’t carom. The football swished straight through the hoop; nothing but net. What are the odds? This, too, was clearly a sign of things to come, for my friend went on to be a two-sport athlete in college. You guessed it: football and basketball. Yup. Significant. And true.
Story Number Three
The other day, I was straightening up the house. I was upstairs, and I noticed that one of the tennis balls that my dogs play with was in an unsafe resting spot near the top of the staircase. With full hands, I decided to nudge the ball with my foot in the direction of the stairs so that it could find its own way down. The tennis ball bounced on the center of the first step, then on the center of the second, and likewise the third. I started to pay heed. And yes, that ball hit every single step exactly one time on its path down those stairs. It had just the right speed and direction neither to miss a step, double bounce, or contact a wall on either side. True story. What are the odds? What is the significance?
The Significance of the Stories
Now before you have me fitted for my “tinfoil hat”, let me tell you that I was only kidding about the significance of the stories above. Yes, the stories were true, but most scientifically-minded people wouldn’t attribute any significance to them. Even non-geeks know that there probably is no significance, so nobody bothers to ask the question or really worry about the odds. In a mindless universe with so many variables, we should expect every now and then to observe events that seem to be out of the ordinary and/or significant. And I would venture to say that the vast majority of the time, there is no significance whatsoever. That is exactly what some people are saying about the observations made in APEX Theory, and you are probably thinking that I just supported their claims. That’s because the stories above are lacking context, and I am going to rectify that right now…
Context
First of all, Kryptos is not a “mindless universe”. There is no doubt that it has a creator, and it is widely believed that he has provided both clues and signs that are meant to serve as guidance and confirmation, respectively. But the creator didn’t tell us which things were clues, how to interpret them, or what signs to look for. All we know is that there are clues, and there are signs. Here is the quote that supports this notion:
“There are lots of doors to go through to get to the meaning of the code. Every time you enter one doorway you might, in the distance, see another door. You go through that doorway and then you go through another doorway. It unfolds as it’s deciphered.”
- Jim Sanborn (from November, 2005 CNN Jamie McIntyre video)
According to this quote, we won’t necessarily know in advance what the signs shall be. Therefore, if and when we encounter potential “doorways”, we will be compelled to determine their nature (i.e. sign vs coincidence) after the fact. We have no other choice, and while such determinations are not slam-dunk simple or conclusive, they are definitely achievable if one is both highly imaginative and strictly discriminating. These qualities are typically antithetical, so it requires a challenging process of “blue sky” dreaming vs “devil’s advocate” thinking.
Let’s construct an analogy between Kryptos and the stories I told you above. Suppose one day, out of the clear blue, a multitude of people heard a voice from the heavens. The voice told us that there was a mystery to solve and that he would be creating signs. Then he gave us a bunch of ambiguous phrases to guide us. (This is just a hypothetical story, by the way. It’s only a thought experiment and analogy, so don’t go asking about the “tinfoil hat” again.)
Suppose now that the reason I went to Gruene Hall was because I had interpreted one of the phrases (maybe it said “oldest dance hall”) as a clue to go there. Suppose also that another of the phrases was “after soaring ladies, proceed to friend’s house”. In this context, it is appropriate to ask whether there was any significance to the fact that the Queen jumped across the table at me, and to see where this interpretation might lead. So I decide to go to a friend’s house, but I am not 100% convinced that I am correct. Perhaps I chose which friend based upon a clean interpretation of some other clue. (I grow weary of inventing these clues. You get the point.) And then, 10 minutes later, the football swishes through the basketball hoop. Then I recall another phrase provided by the voice: “pigskin three pointer”. Again, in this context, I think it is reasonable to consider whether this was another sign. The story might proceed with a clue to kick the tennis ball down the stairs and a separate phrase that matches the unusual result, etc, etc, etc. If the match between the clues, steps, and signs are clean enough, and the signs themselves are unusual enough, then these things begin to confirm one another and increase your confidence. (This is similar to the concept of preponderance of the evidence in a court case, where there is no “smoking gun”, but there are numerous unlikely coincidences that you could not have foreseen at the beginning of the investigation.) The APEX Theory is a very good example of this. Go read it.
As I said before, each of these events happening on its own and out of context is completely without significance. But in the context of a creative mystery (as opposed to a mindless universe) whereby these independent events happen consecutively (rather than years apart without any connection) and with clues and signs for guidance and confirmation (instead of arbitrary actions and observations) there may very well be significance. Part of the process of determining whether to assume significance is asking the question: ”what are the odds that that could occur just by pure chance?” While it is true that low odds by themselves are no guarantee of significance, they are certainly a requirement. For instance, if I choose as a “sign” some event that happens every time I walk out the door, the power of that event as a discriminator diminishes and the problem becomes unsolvable. (If the creator does not rely on “easter eggs” that are unusual, then how will we see them amongst all of the other possibilities?)
So, in this context when you ask the question “what are the odds of a uniformly random process having that result”, you are not just comparing the likelihood of that result to each of the other possible outcomes of the uniformly random process. (We all know how that turns out.) You are actually just counting how many possible distinct outcomes there possibly were and confirming that you aren’t mistaking something quite commonplace for an “easter egg”. You are playing “devil’s advocate”, as well you should.
Debunking the Debunkers
In APEX Theory, I provide a detailed methodology for approaching K4 which involves interpreting clues and observing signs. The context of those clues, signs, and processes are extremely important details. Without those details, the conclusions of APEX Theory seem about as far-fetched as the sarcastic significance of my three true stories above. While I have no problem granting that the last one or two observations of APEX Theory may be pure chance, other observations support each other through the contextual relationships and preponderance of evidence. Context is absolutely critical, so if someone were to attempt a critique of APEX Theory that leaves out a lot of that context, then they can “prove” anything they want.
Some people are masters at “proof by omission”. Michael Moore could probably make Mother Theresa seem to be the anti-Christ just by editing film footage, sound bites, and printed quotes. I sometimes wonder what makes certain people better at such things than others, but I digress. Regardless of “why” or “how” someone drops important context in order to make a point, it is fairly simple for you to determine that it has happened. In the case of APEX Theory, you can simply do this: search the “debunking” material for instances of the words “doorway” or “world”. Search likewise for any mention of the clues I’ve relied on. Search for anything deeper than brief, high-level descriptions of my steps and their motivations. Search for quotes taken out of context and then interpreted in the most extreme way possible (e.g. ” Here Thompson admits X…” when the quote provided does not say that, nor are the differences ever actually explored in depth.)
Actually, if you want to understand the strengths and weaknesses of APEX Theory, the best way to do that is simply go read it yourself. If you happen to have an old copy of it, perhaps in Word document format, throw that thing away and go to the website where it is all much more clear. If you do that, then the most important thing to realize is this: the strength of the theory lies in the clues and the way that the various observations fit together. The statistics are only around to confirm that the “signs” are not things that happen all of the time. The clues confirm the relevance. If you don’t like the statistics, or if you don’t even think they should be in there, then by all means, go print out the document and redact all of the parts that mention them. Then see what is left standing regarding clues, observations, and coincidences.
Can you see the forest for the trees?